Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
