Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Drop of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A major talking point of England's top flight this campaign has been the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and how teams have been scoring increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.
When we compare how goals have been scored to matchday 11 last season, there have been a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, giving us 13 less altogether.
Considering the broader view, shot attempts clubs are making have seen an incredible 370 fewer in open play than this time last season.
Even with the big increase in dead-ball scores, records show just two more attempts created from these situations outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency clubs are at devising strategies to score from dead-ball situations.
Scoring Rates Tell a Story
301 total goals recorded in 110 games so far calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if maintained for the entire campaign might be the smallest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69).
But just 196 goals coming in open play translates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the smallest for since 2009-10, since 2009-10 (1.76).
That campaign also marks the only Premier League campaign to experience goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).
Which Sides Account for This Change?
Regarding scoring from open play, Wolves have seen the most significant decrease, netting only four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than at this stage last season.
Apart from Wolverhampton, the EPL's drop in open-play scoring is predominantly a London phenomenon, with half of the London's seven clubs recording at least five goals fewer from open play than the previous year.
In fairness, that's largely down to them netting lots of goals at the early stages of the previous campaign rather than their genuine struggle to convert in open-play this season.
Meanwhile City have seen the most significant jump, with all but one of the 23 they've scored to date coming in open play.
Set-Piece Success
We've compared newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they replaced. Play-off champions Sunderland have netted three more scores in open-play than the Saints did in their opening 11 matches en route to relegation last season.
When it comes to scoring from set-pieces (excluding penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have recorded the largest rise, with both sides compensating for the five fewer goals that they've produced in open play with identical figures from set-pieces.
Man United have netted double the number scores from set-pieces as they did in the first 11 matches last season before Ruben Amorim took charge, while Sunderland again prove more successful at converting than the fellow red-and-whites that went down.
Man City don't seem to have got the trend about netting additional goals from set-plays, since they've recorded three fewer than the previous campaign, similar to Forest, although that might be down to the altered approach they have tried to implement.
Overall Patterns
Six teams – Arsenal, the Blues, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – represent this season's primary examples by netting less goals from open-play and increased from set-plays, while Man City represent the only side to buck the trend up to now by achieving the contrary.
It will be fascinating to watch if sides carry on to depend greatly on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they find again their all-round creativity and begin converting more goals in open-play too.
